Ursula von der Leyen has told her party she will seek a second mandate to lead the European Union’s executive arm, as the bloc struggles with challenges from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House, according to Bloomberg.
Von der Leyen, 65, briefed the leadership of her center-right CDU party at a meeting in Berlin on Monday, according to a person familiar with the issue.
Her candidacy, which was widely expected, comes as the EU faces a change in leadership with a possible surge in far-right and populist forces in June’s European Parliament elections. The bloc also faces a tougher global outlook with Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, and a potential Trump victory.
The center-right European People’s Party, in which the CDU holds the largest number of lawmakers, is expected to win the elections, making von der Leyen a leading contender to retake the European Commission for another five years. But her success is far from certain as she will need the support of EU leaders in a backroom deal, and enough votes in a more fragmented European parliament.
Von der Leyen legislative priorities are expected to pivot from a strong focus on the Green Deal during her first mandate to security and defense, as well as migration and competition.
The bloc is seeking to rearm itself, become less dependent on the US military umbrella, better counter an expansionist Vladimir Putin and address growing trade tensions with China.
Von der Leyen said at the Munich Security Conference at the weekend that she would install a commissioner for defense if she wins a second mandate. Estonian Premier Kaja Kallas told Bloomberg on the sidelines of the conference that the EU should work on a plan to issue €100 billion in eurobonds to boost the continent’s defense industry.
Von der Leyen’s team has been drawing up an economic security strategy to better control the export of goods that can serve both military and civil purposes, tighten the screening of investments in Europe and the flow of outbound capital going into critical technologies.
But von der Leyen would face a difficult second term ensuring that member states conclude the roll out of the €800 billion cash-for-reforms recovery fund and push through her flagship green deal.
A big challenge is still ahead: implement the newly agreed laws for this decade and agree a new interim emissions-reduction goal for 2040 as part of the overarching target to zero-out greenhouse gases by 2050. Policymakers in Brussels and national governments are already facing protests from farmers, who will need to contribute to the green shifts.
On the geopolitical front, von der Leyen’s commission is preparing for all scenarios tied to the US elections in November, in particular a Trump victory that could push allies further apart. Although she built a good working relationship with President Joe Biden, the results were disappointing on the trade front, a senior EU diplomat acknowledged.
If von der Leyen does win a second term, several EU officials and diplomats pointed out she must correct her widely-criticized push to centralize authority, saying they want her to involve her commissioners more.
But despite her flaws, the trained doctor is considered among EU officials and diplomats a good crisis manager who helped to project a strong image of Europe abroad.